Are you ready for the correction that will happen in mid November of 2020?
These are just my predictions and they may be wrong but here’s what I think and also here is what my portfolio currently looks like and what my plans are. (The portfolio has already changed from what it was in 2 blogs ago)
Ok so firstly, why is there going to be a major correction in mid November. Well, as some of you may know that is when the US elections are being held and currently, Democrat candidate Joe Biden is favourite to win. This can spell bad news for some investors as he wants to increase capital gains tax so he can increase tax revenues to pay for new infrastructure. I believe that Biden will win over Trump because of the massive social movement that is happening (the biggest I’ve seen since the civil rights movement in the 60’s) and how obvious it is that Trump isn’t on the right side of it. Once Biden gets in the CGT will increase, this will trigger a large sell off by investors. Now this is where it gets interesting. Regardless of who wins, I still think that the market is extremely overpriced, and has been for the majority of the Trump campaign and this is partially due to trumps protectionist economics and his focus on driving stock market records. But this doesn’t add up in 2020, how can the markets be higher than pre-covid levels when COVID is still hammering the US? They have completely mishandled the situation, and is leading the world in total COVID deaths. So how is the stock market higher than when it was before COVID? Answer, the Trump pump. Trump alongside the Federal Reserve have devalued the US dollar with all the quantitative easing that has been undertaken just to keep markets liquid and investors investing in the US. But this is not how market dynamics work, the market will always show you what’s fair value when the time is right and I believe that time is when the Trump the market pumper is succeeded by someone else and in this case that will be Biden. Therefore a combination of Trump no longer being president and having a president that wants to increase CGT will trigger a sell off and we should see the US markets fall by between 10%-25% to where the should be really as that looks more fair in the current economic climate and should stay like that for at least a quarter or two before making a slow recovery. Those are my predictions for November, the elections and the year beyond that, now time to see what my updated portfolio looks like and what the plans are for the next coming months.
The portfolio is now up 10% recovering from the low 2% it was sitting at last week partially thanks to the resurgence in Virgin Galactic (SPCE) which is now up 46% in our portfolio.
The first company in the portfolio to talk about is Aston Martin (AML), now I had holdings in this company but sold all shares and then refought back in at a much lower price (50.95) a week later. I didn’t want to average down the portion because I didn’t want to add more capital to the position. I was happy with the amount of capital I had allocated to it. It is now up 1.24%. With this position I will look to add to it at the back end of the year depending on how many other opportunities there are and how the current prospects pan out with AML.
Centamin (CEY) is the next company. We bought more shares in the company after precious metals dipped last week, which means we now have 36 shares in total and are currently up 2.84%. This investment is part of my partial strategy to hedge against the devalue of the dollar and for when Biden wins. Will look to add to this position in the short term.
Our position in the iShares FTSE 250 ETF (MIDD) has remained unchanged capital wise. But is back up to a 12.68% return. Will continue to add to this in the short term and long term.
JD Wetherspoon (JDW) had a small resurgence yesterday but as of today it has had a 5.77% decline which leads to an overall decline of 7.1% for us. This is one of the larger positions in the portfolio and I will continue to add to this position when there are clear buying opportunities. Once the UK eases on its restrictions later on in the year this stock will lead a huge comeback in the restaurants and bars industry.
The next company is the addition of Supply@Me Capital (SYME) bought 5400 shares as an average price of £0.005 this company is huge amount of shares outstanding and non-invest in a company like this however after in a business plan I was very intrigued by how revolutionary their idea could be so I have located a small amount of capital towards this company as a part of a speculative strategy to see if this company would actually go anywhere on the first day there in this company who made 30% but didn’t sell because this does have the potential to be 100%+. I’m not sure if I had this position or not for the time being but if I have any spare capital to allocate them this will probably be up there.
Taylor Wimpey (TW) is the newest addition in the portfolio this is a small allocation of capital towards it and the average price is £1.01 per share. We are already up 4.94% and the main reason for investing in this company is because in the UK as part of the seamless package for the transfer of the extractor absolutely/stamp duty which meant that it was cheaper to move houses or to buy a house. This has caused quite an increase in demand for housing and personally I know three people in my close group of friends that are moving therefore I thought I might as well invest in one of the U.K.’s biggest great estate agencies and development companies to see if there was any money to be made and in the short term it is proved to be quite profitable will look to hold and potentially increase later on in the year.
Tri-Tax Big Box REIT (BBOX) has had a slight bounce-back and is now at 12.73% I have another in into this position and I’m holding for the time being once capital becomes available what I shall increase this position as they are a good dividend paying paying quarterly dividends and have a strong business model.
Virgin Galactic (SPCE) is the next company and yesterday Monday the 28th virgin Galactic had a resurgence of about 30% increase leading overall position to 49% we have 24 shares and will add if the price is below $14, if not, no worries we’ll just hold and see where this takes us. Prediction is once virgin Galactic announces positive results in revenue and profit this stock could absolutely explode, maybe explode isn’t the best word to use when talking about a space tourism company.
Finally we have WisdomTree physical silver ETF (PHSP) this ETF has been up-and-down quite recently as it is a precious-metals ETF at the moment is up 3.34% and in the short term I will look to increase my position in silver as I think silver will be the wealth accumulator of the next correction and gold will be for wealth preservation.
Leave a Reply